On the count of three, I want you to call heads or tails.

1…2…3…

What did you call?

Now what if I told you that the 10 previous flips had all landed on heads. What would you guess next time?

If you’re like most people, you’d say the next one has to be tails… the odds have to balance out.

But that would be wrong.

This is known as the gambler’s fallacy and it’s one of many cognitive biases that shape how we think, especially in sport.

Each coin flip has a 50% chance of landing on heads and a 50% chance of landing on tails. The odds are completely independent of what flip came before it.

And in sport, it’s no different. Every practice, workout, game, or race is its own moment – a clean slate with new possibilities.

The problem with bias is that it leads us to conclusions without all the facts.

In sport, it convinces us we can predict the outcome before the game or race is actually over.

For example, if your team gives up an early goal, you might start believing the game is already lost, even though you’ve bounced back from that situation before.

At its core, biases distort how we see ourselves and our performances. They influence how we think about training, how we handle setbacks, and how we define success.

A lot of the time, our biases show up automatically, without us even realizing it. But the good news is that every bias has a counter-strategy.

Recency Bias

Ever let the last moment decide how you feel about everything?

As a figure skater, this might look like showing up to a competition expecting it to go poorly because your last practice didn’t go well, even though all the other practices before that went great.

As a hockey player, it might mean dwelling on the turnover in your last game and letting that shake your confidence heading into the next one.

The truth is, one bad day doesn’t erase months (or years) of progress. But when something happens recently, especially if it feels emotionally charged, our brains give it more weight than it deserves.

As an athlete, this means reflecting on your entire season or your entire training block, not just the most recent workout or game that didn’t go the way you wanted.

Strategy: Zoom out. Look at the full picture. This helps us to remember that consistency, not perfection is what drives performance and long-term growth.

Negativity Bias

Ever noticed how one bad moment outweighs ten good ones?

As a basketball player, you might execute well all game, but one turnover under pressure becomes the moment you use to judge yourself, outweighing everything you did right.

As a soccer player, you might play a solid 90 minutes, but one defensive mistake that leads to a goal becomes the moment your mind returns to, overshadowing all the good work that came before it.

The truth is, our brains are wired to detect mistakes more readily than wins or progress. But in sport, it can make our performances feel worse than they actually were. That negative bias can have us doubt how capable we are in our sport.

Strategy: When reflecting on a performance, force yourself to name three things that went well before analyzing what didn’t. This helps balance your internal scoreboard and gives you a more accurate view of how you actually performed.

Confirmation Bias

Ever felt so convinced you were right about something that everything suddenly ‘proved’ it?

​​As a runner, this might lead you to interpret one tough workout as “proof” that you’re not in shape, while overlooking all the sessions that show you are progressing.

As a baseball player, this might look like zeroing in on the one error you made in the field and using it as “proof” that your defense is weak, while overlooking the five routine plays you executed perfectly.

Unfortunately, confirmation bias can lock you into a storyline that isn’t true. Once you decide on a narrative (for example,“I’m not fit” or “I can’t keep up”), your brain will work hard to gather “evidence” to support it.

Strategy: When you catch yourself forming a conclusion, ask yourself: What evidence am I not considering? Build the habit of checking for data points that challenge your initial belief, not just the ones that confirm it.

So What?

Understanding these biases doesn’t mean they’ll suddenly disappear. But knowing what they are helps you recognize when they’re showing up, and gives you the tools to challenge them with evidence, not emotion.

When you learn to challenge your biases you give yourself a clearer picture of your true ability and can head into the next practice, the next game, or next performance with greater clarity and confidence.

This blog was written by Coach Elaina.